UQSay #47

2–3 PM — Mélanie Rochoux (CECI, Cerfacs, CNRS) — [slides]

Assimilating fire front position and emulating boundary-layer flow simulations for wildland fire behavior ensemble prediction and reanalysis

Monitoring wildfire behavior has recently emerged as a key public policy issue due to the occurrence of extreme events, in particular in the Euro-Mediterranean area that is exposed to more frequent and more severe wildfires under climate change. Key to this modeling is the development of an event-scale numerical simulation capability as a means to understand and predict the interactions between the atmosphere and the wildfire that drive its behavior.

In this framework, my research aims at designing and evaluating a wildland fire behavior reanalysis capability to reconstruct as best as possible wildland fire progression at landscape-to-atmospheric scales. This approach combines information coming from a coupled atmosphere/fire model (Costes et al. 2021) and from airborne thermal infrared images (Paugam et al. 2021) through an ensemble-based data assimilation algorithm that infers more realistic environmental factors and estimates the time-evolving fire front position.

My talk will provide an overview of the different components required to build this reanalysis capability, with two main focus: i) a front data assimilation methodology to address position errors in the fire front progression (Rochoux et al. 2018; Zhang et al. 2019), and ii) a non-intrusive reduced-order modeling approach combining principal component analysis and adaptive Gaussian processes to accurately and efficiently explore the physical parameter space and predict the atmospheric boundary-layer flow patterns (Nony et al. 2021). In the long-term, these methods will be applied to the Meso-NH/Blaze coupled atmosphere/fire model to design a wildland fire behavior ensemble prediction and reanalysis capability.

Joint work with Bastien Nony & Thomas Jaravel (Cerfacs), Didier Lucor (LISN), Annabelle Collin & Philippe Moireau (Inria), Cong Zhang & Arnaud Trouvé (University of Maryland).

Refs:

• M.C. Rochoux, A. Collin, C. Zhang, A. Trouvé, D. Lucor and P. Moireau (2018). Front shape similarity measure for shape-oriented sensitivity analysis and data assimilation for eikonal equation. ESAIM: Proceedings and Surveys, EDP Sciences, 63:258–279, DOI:10.1051/proc/201863258.
• C. Zhang, A. Collin, P. Moireau, A. Trouvé and M.C. Rochoux (2019). State-parameter estimation approach for data-driven wildland fire spread modeling: application to the 2012 RxCADRE S5 field-scale experiment. Fire Safety Journal, 105:286–299, DOI:<10.1016/j.firesaf.2019.03.009.
• B.X. Nony, M.C. Rochoux, D. Lucor and T. Jaravel (2021). Compound parametric metamodeling of large-eddy simulations for micro-scale atmospheric dispersion. 20th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, Tartu (Estonia), 14–18 June, 2021.
• A. Costes, M.C. Rochoux, C. Lac and V. Masson (2021) Subgrid-scale fire front reconstruction for ensemble coupled atmosphere-fire simulations of the FireFlux I experiment. Fire Safety Journal, 126:103475, DOI:10.1016/j.firesaf.2021.103475.
• R. Paugam, M.J. Wooster, W.E. Mell, M.C. Rochoux, J-B. Filippi, G. Rücker, O. Frauenberger, E. Lorenz, W. Schroeder and N. Govendor (2021). Orthorectification of helicopter-borne high resolution experimental burn observation from infra red handheld imagers. Remote Sensing, 13(23):4913, DOI:10.3390/rs13234913.

Organizing committee: Pierre Barbillon (MIA-Paris), Julien Bect (L2S), Nicolas Bousquet (EDF R&D), Amélie Fau (LMPS), Filippo Gatti (LMPS), Bertrand Iooss (EDF R&D), Alexandre Janon (LMO), Sidonie Lefebvre (ONERA), Didier Lucor (LISN), Emmanuel Vazquez (L2S).

Coordinator: Julien Bect (L2S).

Practical details: the seminar will be held online using Microsoft Teams.

If you want to attend this seminar (or any of the forthcoming online UQSay seminars), and if you do not already have access to the UQSay group on Teams, simply send an email and you will be invited. Please specify which email address the invitation must be sent to (this has to be the address associated with your Teams account).

You will find the link to the seminar on the « General » UQSay channel on Teams, approximately 15 minutes before the beginning.

The technical side of things: you can use Teams either directly from your web browser or using the « fat client », which is available for most platforms (Windows, Linux, Mac, Android & iOS). We strongly recommend the latter option whenever possible. Please give it a try before the seminar to anticipate potential problems.