The forty-seventh UQSay seminar on UQ, DACE and related topics will take place online on Thursday afternoon, May 19, 2022.
Monitoring wildfire behavior has recently emerged as a key public policy issue due to the occurrence of extreme events, in particular in the Euro-Mediterranean area that is exposed to more frequent and more severe wildfires under climate change. Key to this modeling is the development of an event-scale numerical simulation capability as a means to understand and predict the interactions between the atmosphere and the wildfire that drive its behavior.
In this framework, my research aims at designing and evaluating a wildland fire behavior reanalysis capability to reconstruct as best as possible wildland fire progression at landscape-to-atmospheric scales. This approach combines information coming from a coupled atmosphere/fire model (Costes et al. 2021) and from airborne thermal infrared images (Paugam et al. 2021) through an ensemble-based data assimilation algorithm that infers more realistic environmental factors and estimates the time-evolving fire front position.
My talk will provide an overview of the different components required to build this reanalysis capability, with two main focus: i) a front data assimilation methodology to address position errors in the fire front progression (Rochoux et al. 2018; Zhang et al. 2019), and ii) a non-intrusive reduced-order modeling approach combining principal component analysis and adaptive Gaussian processes to accurately and efficiently explore the physical parameter space and predict the atmospheric boundary-layer flow patterns (Nony et al. 2021). In the long-term, these methods will be applied to the Meso-NH/Blaze coupled atmosphere/fire model to design a wildland fire behavior ensemble prediction and reanalysis capability.
Joint work with Bastien Nony & Thomas Jaravel (Cerfacs), Didier Lucor (LISN), Annabelle Collin & Philippe Moireau (Inria), Cong Zhang & Arnaud Trouvé (University of Maryland).
Organizing committee: Pierre Barbillon (MIA-Paris), Julien Bect (L2S), Nicolas Bousquet (EDF R&D), Amélie Fau (LMPS), Filippo Gatti (LMPS), Bertrand Iooss (EDF R&D), Alexandre Janon (LMO), Sidonie Lefebvre (ONERA), Didier Lucor (LISN), Emmanuel Vazquez (L2S).
Coordinator: Julien Bect (L2S).
Practical details: the seminar will be held online using Microsoft Teams.
If you want to attend this seminar (or any of the forthcoming online UQSay seminars), and if you do not already have access to the UQSay group on Teams, simply send an email and you will be invited. Please specify which email address the invitation must be sent to (this has to be the address associated with your Teams account).
You will find the link to the seminar on the “General” UQSay channel on Teams, approximately 15 minutes before the beginning.
The technical side of things: you can use Teams either directly from your web browser or using the “fat client”, which is available for most platforms (Windows, Linux, Mac, Android & iOS). We strongly recommend the latter option whenever possible. Please give it a try before the seminar to anticipate potential problems.