Robustness analysis is an emerging field in the uncertainty quantification domain. It involves analyzing the response of a computer model—which has inputs whose exact values are unknown—to the perturbation of one or several of its input distributions. Practical robustness analysis methods therefore require a coherent methodology for perturbing distributions; we present here one such rigorous method, based on the Fisher distance on manifolds of probability distributions. Further, we provide a numerical method to calculate perturbed densities in practice which comes from Lagrangian mechanics and involves solving a system of ordinary differential equations. The method introduced for perturbations is then used to compute quantile-related robustness indices. We illustrate these “perturbed-law based” indices on several numerical models. We also apply our methods to an industrial setting: the simulation of a loss of coolant accident in a nuclear reactor, where several dozen of the model’s physical parameters are not known exactly, and where limited knowledge on their distributions is available.
Joint work with Jérôme Stenger, Roman Sueur et Bertrand Iooss.
Organizing committee: Julien Bect (L2S), Emmanuel Vazquez (L2S), Didier Clouteau (MSSMAT), Filippo Gatti (MSSMAT), Fernando Lopez Caballero (MSSMAT), Amélie Fau (LMT), Bertrand Iooss (EDF R&D).
Practical details: the seminar will be held online using Microsoft Teams.
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