The forty-eighth UQSay seminar on UQ, DACE and related topics will take place online on Thursday afternoon, June 2, 2022.
We are interested in real-time estimation and short-term forecasting of 3D fluid flows, using limited computational resources. This is possible through the coupling between data, numerical simulations and sparse fluid flow measurements. Here, the term data refers to numerical simulation outputs. To achieve these ambitious goals, synthetic (i.e. simulated) data and intrusive surrogate models drastically reduce the problem dimensionality – typically from 10 7 to 10. Unfortunately, even with corrections, the accumulated errors of these surrogate models increase rapidly over time due to the chaotic and intermittent nature of fluid mechanics. Therefore, deterministic predictions are hardly possible outside the learning time interval. Data assimilation can alleviate these problems by (i) providing a set of simulations covering probable futures (without increasing the computational cost) and (ii) constraining these online simulations with measurements.
We addressed this Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) problem (i) with a multi-scale physically-based stochastic parameterization called “Location uncertainty models” (LUM) [1-3] and new statistical estimators based on stochastic calculus, signal processing and physics [3]. The deterministic ROM coefficients are obtained by a Galerkin projection whereas the correlations of the noises are estimated from the residual velocity, the physical model structure, and the evolution of the resolved modes. We solved problem (ii) with a particle filter [4].
Whether we consider UQ [3] or DA [4] applications, our method greatly exceeds the state of the art, for ROM degrees of freedom smaller than 10 and moderately turbulent 3D flows (Reynolds number up to 300).
Joint work A. M. Picard & M. Ladvig (Scalian), and D. Heitz (INRAE).
Refs: [1] hal-01391420, [2] hal-02558016, [3] hal-03169957 & [4] hal-03445455.
Organizing committee: Pierre Barbillon (MIA-Paris), Julien Bect (L2S), Nicolas Bousquet (EDF R&D), Amélie Fau (LMPS), Filippo Gatti (LMPS), Bertrand Iooss (EDF R&D), Alexandre Janon (LMO), Sidonie Lefebvre (ONERA), Didier Lucor (LISN), Emmanuel Vazquez (L2S).
Coordinator: Julien Bect (L2S).
Practical details: the seminar will be held online using Microsoft Teams.
If you want to attend this seminar (or any of the forthcoming online UQSay seminars), and if you do not already have access to the UQSay group on Teams, simply send an email and you will be invited. Please specify which email address the invitation must be sent to (this has to be the address associated with your Teams account).
You will find the link to the seminar on the “General” UQSay channel on Teams, approximately 15 minutes before the beginning.
The technical side of things: you can use Teams either directly from your web browser or using the “fat client”, which is available for most platforms (Windows, Linux, Mac, Android & iOS). We strongly recommend the latter option whenever possible. Please give it a try before the seminar to anticipate potential problems.
