The seventh UQSay seminar on Uncertainty Quantification and related topics, organized by L2S and MSSMAT, will take place on Thursday afternoon, January 16, 2020, at CentraleSupelec Paris-Saclay (Eiffel building, amphi III).
Iterative estimation in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
While building and using numerical simulation models, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are invaluable tools. In engineering studies, numerical model users and modellers have shown high interest in these techniques that require to run many times the simulation model with different values of the model inputs in order to compute statistical quantities of interest (QoI, i.e. mean, variance, quantiles, sensitivity indices…). In this talk we will focus on new issues relative to large scale numerical systems that simulate complex spatial and temporal evolutions. Indeed, the current practice consists in the storage of all the simulation results. Such a storage becoming quickly overwhelming, with the associated long read time that makes cpu time consuming the estimation of the QoI. One solution consists in avoiding this storage and in computing QoI on the fly (also called in-situ). It turns the problem to considering problems of iterative statistical estimation. The general mathematical and computational issues will be posed, and a particular attention will be paid to the estimation of quantiles (via an adaptation of the Robbins-Monro algorithm) and variance-based sensitivity indices (the so-called Sobol’ indices).
Joint work with Yvan Fournier (EDF), Bruno Raffin (INRIA), Alejandro Ribés (EDF), Théophile Terraz (INRIA).